On the surface, the housing market may seem bleak.
- Realtor.com reports 754,846 single family and condo/townhomes had active listings as of 11/2023
- Forbes reports the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is approximately 7%
- Redfin reports median home prices are north of 400K
- Realtor.com reports median days on the market is 52
- The rate for pending sales that fall out of contract is about 16%
Of the homes listed for sale, an estimated 8% will have their listing contracts “expire.” The exact percentages vary from region to region, but ArchAgent delivered over 50,000 Expired Listings to customers on January 1, 2024.
Approximately 40-50% of Expired listings – or 20 to 25K – will re-list with a different agent. Sellers that list with another agent are typically highly motivated. IF you know where to look for these sellers, you can find your share of those 20,000+ listings – and the ArchAgent Expired Leads Service can help.
Insightful Lead Volume
In the 25 years I’ve been involved with real estate lead generation, I have never seen such an overall increase in the volume of expired listings in certain markets. My hometown of Austin, TX, for example, has finally succumbed to overpricing: Austin had 500 expired listings on January 1, 2024, which is a six fold increase from a year ago. In comparison, the greater Los Angeles market, which struggled in 2022, had only 350 expired listings on January 1 – a 50% decrease from 2023. And, certain markets remain insulated from such market shifts due to such factors as low taxes, quality public schools, and desirable quality of life conditions.
When Will Markets Fully Recover?
There are three truths in life: taxes, taxes and cyclical real estate markets. As we look at the start of 2024, some current trends include a slow increase in inventory and a rise in new construction, with single family building permits up for the tenth straight month.
While NAR reports year-over-year transactions were down about 7%, the last quarter of 2023 saw a 1% uptick. Perhaps buyers are finally adjusting to higher interest rates – I suspect this is true because the Fed has not raised rates since July 2023, holding them steady at 6.5-7%. If this stabilization holds, you’ll see a flood of For Sale By Owners, as many do-it-yourself sellers have been sitting on their hands waiting for rates to calm down so they can plot their next move. In 2023 there were record number of pre-foreclosure leads and subsequent foreclosures. That trend is slowing and rates are nearing pre-pandemic levels.
What’s Next?
It’s impossible to accurately predict the timing of real estate market cycles. Rather than gamble on the future, take action now and get out in front of the market. Have your marketing strategies in place – NOW. Follow a good script – and if you need one here’s a great Expired Listing Script to consider.
Be prepared to overcome the two most common objections: price and commission. Master your presentations so that when a favorable cycle returns – and it will (just like your tax bill) – you won’t be chasing to catch up. You’ll be in the lead at the front of the pack.
ArchAgent Expired Listing Service is a good, affordable lead service to help get you there. We can provide you with the most current owner information, including mobile and landline numbers, email addresses, and social media links – and the accuracy of our data is unmatched in the industry.
ArchAgent can help you find new opportunities – now!
Learn more: Expired Listing Leads from ArchAgent.
Learn more about how highly successfully agents’ market to Expired listings and our Propensity To List neighborhood service. For a white paper on how the analytics work please call us at 800-882-9155.
Steve Cortez is a seasoned real estate professional with decades of experience and owner of ArchAgent. ArchAgent brings together the tools and resources the country’s top real estate agents rely on in a single package for a low cost.